My TikTok feed has been hijacked by group of Chinese manufacturers lamenting the decline in business associated with the Trump tariffs. Many claim that they are the manufacturers for high end products from Gucci, Hermes, Prada and others, where the bulk of fabrication takes place in China with minimal finishing in Italy or France. Whether […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2025-04-15 07:40:452025-04-15 07:41:45Could Trump’s tariffs deliver luxury to the masses?
Tariffs I. Long-sighted or over-reacted? While it remains unclear what the point of the Trump tariff episode is, the markets had either (i) underestimated their duration and reach, or (ii) over-reacted. Some facts… The Petersen Institute for International Economics in Washington DC estimates that trade adds USD2,500 per household annually where household GDP is USD210,000 […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2025-04-06 02:43:422025-04-06 02:47:00Markets and penguins
In social games of cricket, if a dispute arises it is common to pick up your bat and ball and go home. A similar strategy would seem optimal to counter the effects of a Tariff war. Donald Trump has embarked on a Tariff war with a number of countries and regions. At stake is trade […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2025-03-14 07:32:462025-03-14 07:32:46How to win the tariff war
I have been critical of purely data driven modelling in the past. Deep Seek’s shock and challenge to the Generative AI heavyweights is a slap in the face for data driven solutions. The ‘dump a bunch of data into a bucket and stir’ mentality seems to sum up the brute force, but stupid, approach to […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2025-01-30 03:28:262025-01-30 03:28:26Deep Seek benefits from some Human Intelligence
Suppose you ask a Large Language Model (LLM) the same question several times. Why do you get a different but related answer? For example, I asked ChatGPT the following question 3 times, Question: Explain Artificial Intelligence in 20 words or less? Answer 1: AI is technology that enables machines to learn, reason, and make decisions, […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2024-11-21 02:22:462024-11-21 02:22:46The brain inside a Large Language Model is a random number generator
So it looks like we will get to see who wins out of the Godzilla Government v King Kong Elon Musk battle now that the US election has delivered Trump back to the White House. I argued that this will be worth electing Trump alone. Musk is confident of being able to strip out $2 […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2024-11-18 05:20:552024-11-18 05:20:55How much is that DOGE in the window? A lesson in Government
With campaigning by Trump and Harris having effectively completed, it now comes down to the grubby business of voting – if you have not already done so. Some observations… Early voters are people who just want to get it over with. US election campaigns are excessively long, compared with the UK system where a 6 […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2024-11-05 07:39:112024-11-05 07:39:11US Election-eve special
Michael Milken is generally regarded as the father of the Junk Bond market. His innovation extended high yielding debt to companies to ensure that profits would be paid out to investors rather than held as retained earnings. The theory is that forcing companies to pay out profits is better than leaving those companies to invest […]
I have argued before that Elon Musk is Minimum Average Cost man. Minimum Average Cost is the long-run equilibrium cost for producing a good or service and the point where marginal cost equals average cost which also equals price in equilibrium. Musk’s biography is peppered with examples where he strips out cost from his car […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2024-10-11 01:18:252024-10-11 01:22:40Godzilla Government v King Kong Elon Musk
Why are exit polls so accurate while pre-voting intention polls largely rubbish? The UK election showed this stark reality where opinion polls leading up to the election showed a close race whereas the exit poll accurately measured a Labour Party landslide victory with an 80 seat majority (in actuality the majority came in at 82). […]
https://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.png00Stephenhttps://www.firstdegree.asia/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/logo.pngStephen2024-09-27 02:31:032024-09-27 02:31:03US Presidential election: if you dont have anything to say then start singing
Could Trump’s tariffs deliver luxury to the masses?
My TikTok feed has been hijacked by group of Chinese manufacturers lamenting the decline in business associated with the Trump tariffs. Many claim that they are the manufacturers for high end products from Gucci, Hermes, Prada and others, where the bulk of fabrication takes place in China with minimal finishing in Italy or France. Whether […]
Markets and penguins
Tariffs I. Long-sighted or over-reacted? While it remains unclear what the point of the Trump tariff episode is, the markets had either (i) underestimated their duration and reach, or (ii) over-reacted. Some facts… The Petersen Institute for International Economics in Washington DC estimates that trade adds USD2,500 per household annually where household GDP is USD210,000 […]
How to win the tariff war
In social games of cricket, if a dispute arises it is common to pick up your bat and ball and go home. A similar strategy would seem optimal to counter the effects of a Tariff war. Donald Trump has embarked on a Tariff war with a number of countries and regions. At stake is trade […]
Deep Seek benefits from some Human Intelligence
I have been critical of purely data driven modelling in the past. Deep Seek’s shock and challenge to the Generative AI heavyweights is a slap in the face for data driven solutions. The ‘dump a bunch of data into a bucket and stir’ mentality seems to sum up the brute force, but stupid, approach to […]
The brain inside a Large Language Model is a random number generator
Suppose you ask a Large Language Model (LLM) the same question several times. Why do you get a different but related answer? For example, I asked ChatGPT the following question 3 times, Question: Explain Artificial Intelligence in 20 words or less? Answer 1: AI is technology that enables machines to learn, reason, and make decisions, […]
How much is that DOGE in the window? A lesson in Government
So it looks like we will get to see who wins out of the Godzilla Government v King Kong Elon Musk battle now that the US election has delivered Trump back to the White House. I argued that this will be worth electing Trump alone. Musk is confident of being able to strip out $2 […]
US Election-eve special
With campaigning by Trump and Harris having effectively completed, it now comes down to the grubby business of voting – if you have not already done so. Some observations… Early voters are people who just want to get it over with. US election campaigns are excessively long, compared with the UK system where a 6 […]
The Private Debt renaissance
Michael Milken is generally regarded as the father of the Junk Bond market. His innovation extended high yielding debt to companies to ensure that profits would be paid out to investors rather than held as retained earnings. The theory is that forcing companies to pay out profits is better than leaving those companies to invest […]
Godzilla Government v King Kong Elon Musk
I have argued before that Elon Musk is Minimum Average Cost man. Minimum Average Cost is the long-run equilibrium cost for producing a good or service and the point where marginal cost equals average cost which also equals price in equilibrium. Musk’s biography is peppered with examples where he strips out cost from his car […]
US Presidential election: if you dont have anything to say then start singing
Why are exit polls so accurate while pre-voting intention polls largely rubbish? The UK election showed this stark reality where opinion polls leading up to the election showed a close race whereas the exit poll accurately measured a Labour Party landslide victory with an 80 seat majority (in actuality the majority came in at 82). […]