US Election-eve special

With campaigning by Trump and Harris having effectively completed, it now comes down to the grubby business of voting – if you have not already done so.

Some observations…

Early voters are people who just want to get it over with.  US election campaigns are excessively long, compared with the UK system where a 6 week campaign is considered an eternity.  The fact that half the US electorate line up early to vote suggests they would prefer a shorter campaign.

So who is going to win?  My Money versus Mischief model of voter behavior is instructive.  To recap: swinging voters are driven by their back -pocket and who they can piss-off.  Harris has made some cash promises but not followed through with specifics.  Trump has resiled from pork-barreling but been quite specific about how he would bring down energy prices.  Both candidates seem to have gifts for voters, so they are tied in this dimension.  Trump, however, clearly dominates the Mischief vote since a vote for him is a clear challenge to the liberal media and the Democrat elite.  A vote for Trump will surely piss off the fourth estate.  My prediction is for a Trump victory on this point alone.

The margin will be large unless there is a protest vote.  A protest vote would benefit the Green’s candidate, reducing the margin between Trump and Harris.  Any protest, however, will harm the traditional left wing candidate and siphon votes away from Harris proportionately more.  In the absence of a protest vote, the Trump vote will be expressed in the voting booth itself, as voters make up their minds when presented with the actual decision.

Voter turnout is expected to be ‘high’ but this still means that 30% of the eligible electors don’t vote.  In my book this is an extraordinary number given the importance of the US in international affairs.  I accept that not voting is a choice, but how many of those who do not participate actually make that conscious decision?