Where is the justification for a ‘tighten at all costs’ monetary policy?
I rarely venture into discussions about macroeconomics because, at its heart, there is almost never a causitive relation in the logic of a macro-theory. For almost 30 years the link between inflation and output AND the link between inflation and money, has gone undetected. Now, however, an inflation seems to have emerged in developed economies without explanation. Despite not knowing the cause of the problem, policymakers are aggressively raising interest rates in the hope that it helps. Is this blind application of a weak policy tool justified?
The Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia are the leading two policy bodies currently raising interest rates. In Australia, where most Mortgage rates float with the cash rate, the tightening policy has driven property prices lower, has caused market liquidity to dry up and the risk of mass-default to rise. For its part, the RBA has said that it will continue to raise rates until inflation comes down – but how long can this be? At what point will the RBA admit that there is little evidence to suggest an exploitable link between inflation and interest rates?
The social cost of a mass default will be highly visible and, because most lending has recourse, will generate mass bankruptcies. Surely there must be some board members who question the evidence supporting the ‘tighten at all costs’ policy?
